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Hong Kong Continues China-Investment Vigil4

2008-01-22T02:20:20Z

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Hong Kong's investors could use the Chinese government's help, but it isn't clear when that help may come.
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Specifically, what traders in Hong Kong need is for Beijing to finally open the doors for mainland citizens to trade Hong Kong stocks.
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Until that happens, one significant leg of support for last year's gains in Hong Kong shares is going to be increasingly wobbly. If that support is removed altogether, Hong Kong stocks could be in for a bigger bruising than they've already had.
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Traders in Hong Kong have been waiting for nearly five months for Beijing to move forward with a plan announced in August that would let citizens in the mainland invest in stocks in Hong Kong.
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The plan was seen as a way of taking pressure off China's emerging stock-market bubble: If Chinese investors have more destinations in which to invest their savings, less money will chase after each share in Shanghai.
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Expectations that piles of Chinese money would come into Hong Kong stocks had the Hang Seng Index surging in the months following the first announcement.
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At its worst, the buying was driven by "greater fool" sentiment: That stock-hungry and hyped-up Chinese investors would pay up for Hong Kong stocks that were, relative to their Chinese counterparts, downright cheap.
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The Hang Seng rose 55% from its August low to a late October high, following that news and the Federal Reserve's decision to slash interest rates in the U.S.
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Shares of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, reflected in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, did even better, gaining about 85% over that period.
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Based on the prospect of coming inflows, investors in Hong Kong began to demonstrate a kind of immunity to global turmoil. That immunity had previously only been apparent in mainland China, and stocks in China and Hong Kong surged while other markets wobbled.
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But the money hasn't come. Instead, traders have heard mixed messages from government officials about when the plan may be launched, and what is holding it back.
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So these traders have gone back to worrying about the other factors that affect stock prices -- most recently the prospects for a U.S. recession and its impact on local economies.
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Both the Hang Seng and the enterprises index have returned to levels last seen in late August, though they remain well above their lowest point of the summer. The Hang Seng is about 21% above its mid-August lows, and the enterprises index stands about 26% higher than its August low.
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There is reason to think the plan will eventually be approved. Last week the head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Joseph Yam, was reported as saying the plan is "an important project and we hope to start it soon."
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That has all been said before, though, and it isn't clear if Mr. Yam was just being hopeful or was actually reflecting the party line. Other officials, most notably Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, have raised concerns about the plan in the past. Mr. Wen said the government had to first consider the potential negative effects the plan could have on both mainland and Hong Kong markets.
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With no clear sign of Chinese investors being approved to make their way into Hong Kong, it is easy to imagine either index revisiting August's lows.
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Several other Asian markets, from Singapore to Korea to Australia, are now very near those lows. Those markets didn't have the support of the prospect of tens of billions of dollars of Chinese money to keep them afloat.
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There is another risk: Recent selling in global markets, and the growing doom-and-gloom consensus for stocks, might be enough to spook even the most exuberant investor. What if Chinese players decide they don't want to buy Hong Kong stocks just yet?
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That isn't to say it is time to rush out and short-sell Hong Kong stocks, a tactic that involves the sale of borrowed shares in the hope of buying them back at a lower price later on.
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Even the biggest bear has to admit two notable risks to a short position in Hong Kong: That Beijing will approve the "through-train" when it is least expected and that money will indeed come pouring into Hong Kong; or that the Fed's rate-cut campaign (which, given the Hong Kong dollar peg to the U.S. dollar, has to be followed) will fuel a recovery in Hong Kong stocks.
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Genes Increase Prostate Cancer Risk4

2008-01-17T03:37:25Z

Favorgame4:

Prostate cancer may not be at the top of your list of topics for dinner conversation with Dad. But you might reconsider: About 10% of prostate cancer cases are linked with family history, and evidence for the disease's genetic roots is growing. Researchers have recently identified a series of gene markers that, when present with family history of the disease, increase a patient's risk of prostate cancer more than nine times. Those markers, say researchers, can be detected in a simple saliva or blood sample — good news for a condition whose prognosis is improved by early detection.
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In a study published online today by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), a team of American and Swedish researchers reported the results of a DNA analysis of over 4,700 Swedish men. The study found that patients whose genes contained four of the five common variants, found to be associated with prostate cancer in 2006 and 2007, had a 400% to 500% increased risk of developing the disease. That risk shot up to over 900% in patients who had the genetic variants and a family history, accounting for nearly half of the prostate cancer cases in the study. "We've never seen this before," says Dr. Jianfeng Xu of Wake Forest University School of Medicine and one of the authors of the study conducted jointly with researchers at Sweden's Karolinksa Institute and Johns Hopkins Brady Urological Institute, among others. Because the variants are common in the general population and their collective association with cancer is so strong, Xu says his findings could help doctors move quickly into the next phase of prostate cancer research: "How to predict individual risk for prostate cancer and catch it early."
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Xu hasn't wasted any time taking his own advice. He and a colleague at Wake Forest have already spun a private business around the study's results — Proactive Genomics, which, like many similar companies that have sprung up recently, will offer a personal genetic test. This one, however, says Xu, will be the world's first genetic screen for a specific disease. To assess cancer risk, patients and doctors currently rely on physical symptoms, age, race, family history and PSA screens — tests that measure blood levels of prostate-specific antigens, which are produced in high amounts by an unhealthy prostate. Xu says his new genetic test — which would require patients to send in blood or saliva samples to be screened for the variants identified in the study — would complement established methods. "We're devoted to improving the situation," says Xu, estimating that his test would cost a few hundred dollars, and could eventually be included in standard health care. "We want to make this very affordable."
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While Xu's test may help identify at-risk patients more accurately and earlier, what it won't do is tell patients — or doctors — who's at risk for developing aggressive, life-threatening disease. In fact most prostate cancer cases in the United States never become lethal: 99% of men diagnosed with prostate cancer — the vast majority of whom are over 65 — survive at least five years, according to the American Cancer Society, and many die with the disease, not because of it. Still, prostate cancer does kill some 30,000 men a year in U.S. Learning more about genetic predisposition, particularly through a test that does not require cancer to be present to determine risk (PSA screening does), may help lead to the way to identify gene markers for the lethal variant of the disease. "It's a step in the right direction," says Dr. William Isaacs, a professor of urology and oncology at the Brady Urological Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and a co-author of the study. "Who's at risk of a more aggressive disease? That's where we'd like to go."
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That research is also already underway. In a study published in the journal Lancet in October, Dr. Henrik Gronberg, another co-author of the NEJM study from the Karolinksa Institute, found an association between family history and aggressiveness in certain kinds of cancer. He found that a woman whose mother died from breast cancer, for instance, was also more likely than other women to develop an aggressive form of the disease. Gronberg says the goal is to establish a specific link between genetic markers, risk, and a cancer's potential invasiveness. "We're reading about genetic factors for these common human diseases almost on a weekly basis now," says Isaacs. "The bad news is that some people may be at higher risk, but the good news is you may be able to do something about it."

Clemens twice refused opportunity to talk3

2008-01-14T07:38:26Z

Favorgame4:

Former senator George Mitchell said pitcher Roger Clemens was asked twice through the players union to respond to accusations that he used illegal performance-enhancing drugs, but each time Clemens declined to talk.
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Mitchell said in an e-mail to USA TODAY that he sent a series of letters to the union during the summer and fall listing players he wanted to interview about allegations. The former senator said he sent another letter to the union in October, stating: "During the course of any such interview, I will inform the player of the evidence of their use, including permitting him to examine and answer questions about copies of relevant checks, mailing receipts, or other documents, and give him an opportunity to respond."
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Clemens was accused in the Mitchell Report, which was released last month, of being injected with steroids and human growth hormone by his former trainer Brian McNamee in 1998, 2000 and 2001.
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NO 'SECOND THOUGHTS:' Clemens preparing to testify before Congress
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Mitchell said he told the union in his first correspondence that players would be provided with details of allegations when interviewed.
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"We identified the year(s) during which the alleged use had occurred and the club(s) with which the players were then affiliated," Mitchell wrote. "Roger Clemens was one of the players listed in those letters."
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But Clemens said last Monday during a news conference that his agents were rebuffed when asking Mitchell about the nature of the allegations.
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"They wouldn't respond to what it was about," said Clemens, who has indicated on several occasions that McNamee's allegations are untrue. "Obviously if I had known what Brian McNamee was saying about me I would have been there."
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Clemens' lawyer, Rusty Hardin, said Sunday that Clemens assumed Mitchell's investigation had focused on an October 2006 Los Angeles Times story in which former pitcher Jason Grimsley alleged in an affidavit that Clemens was a user of performance-enhancing drugs. Clemens was not named in the affidavit when it was unsealed in December.
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Michael Weiner, a players union lawyer, didn't address Mitchell's correspondence to the union but said he didn't know Clemens' name was in the Mitchell Report until it was released.
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